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A Few Notes on War with Iran
Mar. 2nd, 2026 05:49 amAside from what I see in the papers, here's a few notes on what I see in Iran.
The US knows where people are and can get to them. This indicates a very interesting weapon. We can figure out and know where people are. That's important if you want to conduct diplomacy by assassination.
In essence, "Negotiate or Die" is the lesson for other countries. I find this both distasteful and terrifying.
As for changing the regime in Iran, that's a whole different level of complexity. Air wars don't win ground wars. As long as state power can survive the bombings, the state will rebound. Without boots on the ground, we cannot implement changed. Even with boots on the ground, we cannot guarantee change.
Calling on people to rise up, who have no weapons and no coordination, is not an effective strategy. To make this effective, you need to get everyone ready, and that takes coordination and logistics, and more importantly, weapons. Otherwise, what you have is magical thinking.
Meanwhile, Iran seems to be attacking where the US isn't defending well. They're sending missiles to many places. This is a reasonable strategy. It may not seem like much to you, but most tankers don't have missile defense systems, so this shuts down the Red Sea. There's a pain point. For oil producers, it shuts down a competitor, so more profit for them.
The US knows where people are and can get to them. This indicates a very interesting weapon. We can figure out and know where people are. That's important if you want to conduct diplomacy by assassination.
In essence, "Negotiate or Die" is the lesson for other countries. I find this both distasteful and terrifying.
As for changing the regime in Iran, that's a whole different level of complexity. Air wars don't win ground wars. As long as state power can survive the bombings, the state will rebound. Without boots on the ground, we cannot implement changed. Even with boots on the ground, we cannot guarantee change.
Calling on people to rise up, who have no weapons and no coordination, is not an effective strategy. To make this effective, you need to get everyone ready, and that takes coordination and logistics, and more importantly, weapons. Otherwise, what you have is magical thinking.
Meanwhile, Iran seems to be attacking where the US isn't defending well. They're sending missiles to many places. This is a reasonable strategy. It may not seem like much to you, but most tankers don't have missile defense systems, so this shuts down the Red Sea. There's a pain point. For oil producers, it shuts down a competitor, so more profit for them.
